Emerging Markets Newsletter

Semester 1 Week 10

Hey Legend!

Happy Monday and welcome to Week 10! 🥳

We wish you all a glorious week 🎉, T-minus 4 weeks til exams 📃, lock-in soldier 🪖.

We’re thick in recruiting season 🤼, we wish you all the best with your applications 🫡, may your CVs be strong and your cover letters only mildly embellished 🥇.

Big thanks to everyone who dropped by our FBE Brunch Pop-Up 🏪, your support (and your snacking) means the world! 🥐☕

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The Numbers

Markets were mixed this week, with equities like the S&P 500 and emerging markets dipping slightly, while gold, crude oil, and Bitcoin posted strong gains. Bitcoin continued its recovery momentum, and gold continues to remain a top-performing asset year-to-date.

The Roundup

Rising tensions jar Indian markets and China’s week blends tragedy with economic gains, while Africa greets mid-May with fintech-driven optimism shadowed by conflict, inflation, and climate threats.

India

Rising tensions between India and Pakistan after Operation Sindoor have rattled markets, weakened the rupee, and triggered a sharp decline in Indian stocks. With two nuclear-armed nations on edge, global leaders are urging diplomacy to avoid further escalation.

• The Indian rupee looks set to decline further on Friday, pressured by the widening conflict between India and Pakistan that may trigger increased hedging and speculative activity. 💸🌍 The rupee on Wednesday slumped 1.04%, recording its worst session in more than two years. 📉😟.

• Indian stocks are set to decline as investor sentiment is likely to take a hit after the country's army said that Pakistan armed forces launched multiple attacks using drones and other munitions along India's entire western border. ⚔️ ⚠️ The Gift Nifty futures were trading at 23,974.5, indicating the Nifty 50 will open about 1.2% below Thursday's close of 24,273.8. 📊🔻.

• In a rare display of unity, Indian political parties across the spectrum have rallied behind the armed forces following 'Operation Sindoor'—a retaliatory strike on terror camps in Pakistan after the Pahalgam massacre. 🤝🛡️. This unified support underscores a shared commitment to national security and a collective stance against cross-border terrorism 🕊️🚫💣.

• India launched Operation Sindoor, a swift 23-minute airstrike targeting nine terror camps in Pakistan in response to the deadly Pahalgam attack. 💥🛩️. Pakistan condemned the strikes, claimed to down Indian jets, and retaliated with cross-border shelling.🚨🎯

China

China publishes its most comprehensive trade data post American tariffs, the central bank intervenes again while the PLA continues to enforce its 9-dash line maritime claims. Meanwhile, tragedy in Guizhou puts a dark cloud over Chinas ‘golden week’ holiday. 

• China’s central bank announced a new stimulus package aimed at revitalising economic activity and injecting 💉💴liquidity to shore up markets 💪. PBoC governor, Pan GongSheng, earmarked a rate cut ✂️ of 10-basis-points to 1.4%, and a 50-basis-point cut to the reserve requirement ratio, expecting to release $138bn worth of liquidity 💦 in capital markets.

• China demands Philippines to cease ‘provocative acts’ in the South China Sea following yet another maritime dispute. PLA warships 👊⚓️confronted ‘intruding’ Filipino warships near the hotly contested Scarborough Shoal - which China claims full sovereignty over 👑. Beijing declared 🗣️ it “forcefully and effectively stopped the incursion”, while Manila condemned Chinas actions as “harassment”.

• Following last weeks report, trade data shows Chinese exports grew 8.1% for the month of April to $315.69bn, strongly over-performing analyst forecasts 🔮💪 which expected a sizeable contraction. Despite U.S. bound exports falling by almost a quarter 📊🔻, 21%, Asian, specifically Indian and Southeast Asia, and European markets compensated with increases of 20% and 8% respectively📈.

• Tourist tragedy in Guizhou province! 10 people have reportedly died 🙏 with an additional 70 injured 🤕 after unexpected heavy rain ⛈️ and mist 🌫️ led 4 tourist boats in Qianxi to capsize. Despite local government warnings calling for increased public safety measures, deadly boat incidents ☠️🛳️ have continued with 8 people also losing their lives in December of last year.

Africa

Africa enters mid-May with cautious optimism. Growth prospects are improving thanks to fintech, trade integration, and reform momentum. Yet risks remain: conflict, inflation, and climate threats continue to weigh on stability.

• Africa’s GDP is set to grow 4.1% in 2025 📊, up from 3.2% in 2024. Inflation is easing 🧊, and debt risks are stabilising 📘 — though 20 countries remain in or near distress 🚧. Growth still falls short of the 7% needed to tackle poverty sustainably 🤲🏽.

• Fintech is transforming finance across Africa 🔄. Mobile money, blockchain 💻, and green finance 🌱 are expanding rapidly. Platforms like M-Pesa and Flutterwave are improving access to credit 💳, while ESG investing gains momentum in capital markets 🌿.

• With 10+ elections ahead in 2025 🗳️, Africa’s political landscape is shifting. Key votes in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, and Tanzania may reshape leadership. ⚠️ In Sudan, violence has reached Port Sudan, while the DRC and Rwanda edge closer to a potential peace deal 🤝.

• Nigeria expanded its use of the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) 💱. The policy enables quicker, cheaper cross-border trade in local currencies — reducing reliance on the US dollar 💵 and supporting SMEs 🚀. It’s a big step toward realising AfCFTA’s full potential 🌍.

See you all next week!

We hope you enjoyed reading our newsletter! There are plenty of facts for you to drop in your next conversation to sound more intelligent. Make sure to share this artistic marvel with a friend!

Good luck for your studies, we know you smart cookies will smash it.

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Best regards,

The EMN Team 💚