Emerging Markets Newsletter

Semester 1 Week 3

Hey Legend!

Happy Monday and welcome to Week 3! 🥳

Unfortunately we have to recognise that the holidays are officially over 😞 as uni kicks into gear. 10 more weeks 🫡. Stay strong 🪖.

Over the past 2 decades, emerging markets have outperformed US stocks in only 7 periods 📈. 2025 is shaping up to be another 🔎 with US stocks down 4% year-to-date 📉.

Luckily for you, we’ve secured an elite operator from the FBE ✨ to give you a high level seminar 👩‍🏫 on investing in emerging markets this Thursday. Clear your schedules, lectures can be watched online, we’ll see you there 👋

Dr Gaby — subject coordinator for FNCE90064: Emerging Markets Finance 💱, advises leading financial institutions 🏦in emerging markets coverage and possesses over 20 years of tertiary experience teaching finance 👩‍🏫, her insights are not to be missed.

Disclaimer: the Emerging Markets Network is not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice, our content is for educational purposes only

Updates

Seminar: Investing in Emerging Markets 💸🫰

Explore investment opportunities in emerging markets with Dr. Gaby Berhe Nadari, Lecturer for FNCE90064: Emerging Markets Finance

• 📍 Lecture Room 6016, Level 6, The Spot

• 📅 Thursday 20th March, 2.45 PM to 4.00 PM

• 🎟️ RSVP here for a special treat! 🎁

President’s Selection

The Numbers

Over the past week, global equity markets faced downward pressure, likely attributable to US tariffs coming into effect, while emerging markets managed slight gains. In contrast, gold continues its strong performance, and crude oil remained stable, whereas Bitcoin continues to decline.

The Roundup

Amid political tensions and securities fraud lawsuits, India witnesses a notable decline in inflation. Regional conflict escalates while a key finance summit is underway in Africa. Chinese equities see their best performance YTD despite deflationary concerns lingering in the economy.

India

This week in India: The top business tycoon faces a securities fraud lawsuit, retail inflation hits a seven-month low, Jio Finance enters the non-banking sector, and tensions rise over delimitation discussions.

• The Indian government has asked for a SEC summons to billionaire Gautam Adani over alleged securities fraud and a $265 million bribery scheme💰🧑‍⚖️. Adani Group has denied the allegations ⚔️, describing them as "baseless" and vowing to seek "all possible legal recourse"⚖️.

• India’s retail inflation eased to a seven-month low of 3.61% in February, down from 4.31% in January ⬇️. The decline was largely driven by lower food prices🍔, with food inflation falling to 3.75% in February from 5.97% in January 🗓️ . The RBI has forecasted an overall inflation rate of 4.2% for FY26.

• India's Jio Finance has tapped the debt market with its maiden commercial paper issuance, ahead of its debut bond sale later this month 🗓️ . The company has issued three-month CPs at a yield of 7.80% and could raise around 30 billion rupees through the sale of five-year bonds with a coupon rate of 7.75% 📄 💵 .

• Political discussions are gaining momentum in India around a delimitation exercise, or reallocation of parliamentary constituency boundaries 🏛️. As populations in northern states grew faster than the south, northern states became under-represented ⛓️‍💥 in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the Indian parliament.

China

Chinese equity markets had their best week of 2025, while Chinese bond yields continued to rise. China strengthened regional cooperation with Iran and Russia to counter growing America pressure. Finally, has China finally escaped its deflationary spiral or do issues continue to persist?

• Chinese equities soar across the board, with the CSI 300 Index finishing the week up 2.43%, reaching its highest YTD return of 4.9% 💸. Stock gains of China's major companies, BYD, Mei Tuan, and Ping An Insurance, surged past 5% 📈  as investors sought to diversify from American economic instability 💢🏛️ and ride the Chinese AI and EV tech wave 🤖🚗.

• Chinese fixed-income assets saw yields rise to 3-month highs, with investors anticipating 👀 interest rates to remain unchanged. The market shift 🔄 comes as China announced plans to raise the national bond issuance quota by 300 billion 📈 and issue $178.9bn in long-term special treasury bonds to fund its revised budget deficit of 4% of GDP.

• Deflationary concerns linger despite incoming CCP intervention as worrying economic data rolls in😨. China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.7% and 2.2% 📉, respectively. Analysts 🤓 have attributed the sustained fall in prices to low consumer spending ⬇️🛒, record youth unemployment 🎓, and a prolonged nationwide housing crisis🚨.

• China strengthened political and military cooperation with Iran and Russia. Following the 2025 Marine Security Belt 🛡️⚓ in which the trio conducted naval drills off the coast of Oman, Beijing hosted Iranian and Russian delegations to discuss 🗣️Iran's nuclear weapons program ☢️ as President Trump seeks to reopen negotiations with Iran🤝.

Africa

This week, Africa’s high-level conferences are tackling trade integration and infrastructure development under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Meanwhile, civil wars loom in Ethiopia and South Sudan, threatening regional stability in the Horn of Africa.

• Major economic talks in Ethiopia! The 57th African Finance Ministers Conference (March 12-18) is underway, bringing together leaders to boost AfCFTA🌐. Key topics include infrastructure expansion 🏗️, cross-border investment💸, and digital inclusion to drive economic integration. With bold reforms on the table, this summit could be a game-changer for Africa’s trade and industrial future! 🚀

• March 12th saw South Africa’s budget release. In this, the Minister of Finance, announced a 0.5% VAT increase↗️, cuts to Home Affairs digitalisation projects🖥️, and inflation-adjusted increases in social grants🧑‍🧑‍🧒‍🧒📊 to ease tax burden. While these moves aim to stabilize debt, some argue they won’t do enough to fix underemployment or infrastructure issues 🏘️.

• Benin is making phenomenal leaps in the finance sector! The government raised $166M by selling a third stake in the International Bank for Industry and Commerce (BIIC)🏦🏫. This sale is part of a plan to boost private investment💸 and fund infrastructure projects🏗️🚀.

• Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have escalated this week. The Tigray region has seen increased military activity⚔️, with fears that hostilities could spark another full-scale war. Meanwhile, South Sudan faces worsening instability as rival factions clash over political control.

See you all next week!

We hope you enjoyed reading our newsletter! There are plenty of facts for you to drop in your next conversation to sound more intelligent. Make sure to share this artistic marvel with a friend!

Good luck for your studies, we know you smart cookies will smash it.

If you have any inquiries please email [email protected]

We look forward to seeing you at our next event!

Best regards,

The EMN Team 💚