Emerging Markets Newsletter

Semester 2 Week 1

Hey Legend!

Happy Monday and welcome to Week 1! 🥳

The break is over, your inbox is alive again, and so are we 💚

Whether you're returning or joining us for the first time, we're excited to have you as part of the Emerging Markets Network! 🕺💃 We’re here to keep you in the loop on all things emerging markets 🌎 through this weekly dose of insight 🗞️ (and mild chaos).

Maybe you were hustling, holidaying, or just speed-running sleep over break, we respect all forms of the grind🫡. But Semester 2’s here, and EMN’s rolling out a lineup that’s sharper than your first tutorial icebreaker⚡

Keep an eye on our socials 👀, we are dedicated to making this semester your best 🥳

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The Numbers

Since we left off last term, equity markets across the world have all enjoyed solid gains. Gold prices continue to remain near their historic highs, crude oil experienced slight growth to $65 USD and bitcoin surged to almost $120,000 USD!

The Roundup

India’s economy accelerates with rate cuts 📉, booming IPOs 🚀, major trade deals 🤝, and a focused aviation probe 🛫🔍. Meanwhile, China faces mixed fortunes at home and abroad.

India

India’s economy is gaining steam with expected rate cuts 📉💰, Brigade’s IPO fully subscribed 📈💼, and a landmark UK-India trade deal unlocking billions 🤝📊. Inflation is easing, market optimism is rising 🔥📊, while the Air India crash probe rules out mechanical faults, focusing on fuel controls 🛫🔍.

• The Reserve Bank of India will hold its key repo rate at 5.50% next month following a surprisingly bigger-than-expected cut in June 📉💰, but will lower it again by year-end 🔻📆. Inflation is forecast to average 3.4% this fiscal year, lower than the central bank's current expectation of 3.7% 📊🪙.

• Brigade Hotel Ventures' BRIA.NS 7.6-billion-rupee ($88 million) initial public offering was fully subscribed on the second day of bidding on Friday 📈💼, as investor optimism about India's burgeoning hospitality sector strengthens 🏨📊.

• Britain and India signed a free trade agreement during a visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, sealing a deal to cut tariffs on goods from textiles to whisky and cars and allow more market access for businesses 🤝📦. The agreement between the world's fifth and sixth largest economies aims to increase bilateral trade by a further 25.5 billion pounds ($34 billion) by 2040 📊🚗.

• The probe into the Air India crash, which killed 241 of the 242 people on board and 19 on the ground, is focused on the fuel control switches of the Boeing 787 jet 🛫🕵️‍♂️. The head of the Federal Aviation Administration said that the fatal crash does not appear to have been caused by a mechanical issue or inadvertent movement of the fuel control unit or switches ⚙️📉.

China

China closes July with mixed results on the domestic and international fronts. At home, Chinese investors spend big in Hong Kong, industrial profits continue to fall while 2 Americans are barred from leaving China. Abroad, pro-China politicians in Taiwan survive a controversial ousting vote.

• Hong Kong’s equity markets soars to new heights as capital inflows from mainland investors reach record levels, hitting $104bn so far this year 🚀💸. The investment boom comes as investors look to diversify away from unattractive government bonds and China’s highly regulated financial system 🔒— all while capitalizing on the Stock Connect program, which exempts investors from capital gains tax.

• Chinese industry continues to struggle! Industrial profits have fallen year-on-year ⚙️🚨 by 4.3% and 9.1% 📉in June and May respectively, with persistent deflation and economic uncertainty continuing to chip away at industrial profit margins. The latest figures has forced Beijing to intervene 🚧, pledging to impose new regulations on hyper competitive industries ⚔️.

• China and Taiwan relations enter new period of uncertainty after Taiwanese voters rejected 🙅‍♂️ Taiwan’s “Great Recall” vote. Initiated by civic groups 🗣️, the vote sought to oust 24 accused ‘Pro-China’ lawmakers from Taiwan’s leading opposition party, the Kuomintang, out of government 🏛️. This political shift follows months of pressure from Beijing against the self-ruled island.

• Wells Fargo bank suspends all travel to China following Beijings decision to bar the exit of one of its American executives. Chinese Spokesperson, Guo Jiakun, later confirmed the detainment was part of an ongoing criminal investigation🚨👮‍♂️. As the second such detainment of an American this week, this has raised concerns 😟 for foreign business operations 💼 and personal safety in China 🔒.

Africa

Africa is closing out July with a mix of progress and pressure. While global trade shifts and supply issues are affecting some key exporters, policy reforms and digital gains 💻 are building cautious hope. At the same time, rising tensions ⚠️ and security issues across the region highlight ongoing political and economic hurdles.

• The African Development Bank kept its 2025 growth forecast at 4.0% 📊, but there’s a clear gap between fast growers like Uganda and Côte d’Ivoire 🌱 and oil-dependent economies like Nigeria and Angola, where growth is slowing. Inflation is mostly stable 📉, but food prices are still rising in areas hit by drought 🌾.

• Big moves in African finance this week 💸. Kenya’s Centum launched a $200M fund for healthtech and green startups 🌍🧬. South Africa rolled out a digital loan platform for small businesses 🏦📲. Ghana kicked off a fintech sandbox to test new ideas 💡, and Egypt and Senegal both sold out their latest bond issues to fund key projects 🏗️.

• Tensions rose across parts of the continent. In Senegal, protests over election delays led the government to reset the voter timeline 🗳️. Ethiopia saw new clashes in Amhara, while Mozambique stepped up its fight against northern insurgents 🚨. Meanwhile, SADC leaders met online to talk trade and deal with shared economic risks 🤝.

• Morocco just made history with Africa’s first fully blockchain-based stock exchange 🧠💹, launched in Casablanca on July 22. The new platform enables instant settlements and better transparency, drawing big attention from investors across the continent. It’s a bold step to modernise markets, boost cross-border investment 💼, and cut funding costs for African businesses.

See you all next week!

We hope you enjoyed reading our newsletter! There are plenty of facts for you to drop in your next conversation to sound more intelligent. Make sure to share this artistic marvel with a friend!

Good luck for your studies, we know you smart cookies will smash it.

If you have any inquiries please email [email protected]

We look forward to seeing you at our next event!

Best regards,

The EMN Team 💚