Emerging Markets Newsletter

2025 Edition #22

Emerging Markets Network
October 07, 2025

Semester 2 Week 10

Hey Legend!

Happy Tuesday and welcome to Week 10… Can you believe it’s already week 10?! 😱

We hope you had a wonderful mid-Sem break and are ready to get back on the grind 💪. As the final set of group assignment due dates enters into view, don’t forget that your fellow group members are human too (even the one that hasn’t responded to the group chat in the last two weeks 🫣).

If you’re feeling stressed, remember the wise words of the iconic Bob Marley, “don’t worry about a thing, ‘cause every little thing is gonna be alright” 🎵😌.

Updates

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The Numbers

Capital markets were largely up over the previous week, led by solid gains in the Emerging Markets, which has rallied for the 9th straight month—the best streak in over two decades. Furthermore, private credit lenders are increasingly wanting their piece of the pie in the EM, with deals from private lenders set to smash historical records, with the likes of Blackstone and Apollo seeing almost US$12bn deployed across these markets.

The Roundup

India balanced steady monetary policy with upbeat IPO momentum, major private equity deals, and political-economic shifts. China struggled with ongoing manufacturing weakness while opening markets, clashing with BHP over resources, and intensifying anti-corruption efforts. Africa faced debt and inflation challenges but pushed trade integration, energy expansion, and saw rising voter backlash reshape political landscapes.

India

Markets surged with energy last week as big deals, bold policies, and blockbuster IPOs set India’s financial scene alight. From the RBI’s steady hand to global investors eyeing new opportunities, the momentum is unmistakable - India’s growth story is only getting louder.

Last week, the RBI kept the repo rate steady at 5.5%, projected inflation at 2.6% and revised GDP growth up to 6.8%📈🏦; it also announced measures to boost lending and deferred full Basel III norms to 2027, signaling support for credit growth 💳📊; meanwhile, the finance minister highlighted India’s resilient growth and the RBI governor stressed strong reserves and low inflation as buffers against global shocks 🌍🛡️.
Tata Capital has raised ₹46.42 billion ($523 million) from anchor investors including LIC and Norway’s wealth fund ahead of its $1.75 billion IPO, one of India’s biggest this year 💰📈. The shares were allotted at the upper end of ₹310–326 and are set to list on October 13 🗓️💹. This comes amid a busy IPO season, with India’s 2025 fundraises nearing $10.5 billion, driven by upcoming giants like LG Electronics India and WeWork India 🚀.
India’s political landscape last week saw the Commerce Ministry push for anti-dumping duties on Chinese solar cell imports to shield local manufacturers 🛡️; in Maharashtra, the BJP government’s move to re-issue a rule allowing shops to stay open 24/7 drew criticism from rivals as political flip-flopping 🔄; while NITI Aayog unveiled a draft presumptive tax scheme for foreign firms, aimed at simplifying rules and boosting India’s global business appeal 🌐📊.
India saw major private equity activity with IHC acquiring a controlling stake in Sammaan Capital for ₹8,850 crore, one of the largest foreign deals this year 🍂💼; meanwhile, Multiples PE bought into VIP Industries via a ₹343 crore bulk deal, signaling strong investor interest in the consumer sector 🧳📉; and SEBI clarified it has no plans to regulate family offices, easing concerns about new restrictions on private investment vehicles 📜🚫.

China

Despite China’s continuously shrinking manufacturing activity for the sixth month this year, the China Mineral Resources Group has temporarily banned shipments from BHP. In order to boost foreign investment, the K visa has been launched targeting STEM graduates. Additionally, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has opened its stock option market to foreign investors.

China’s manufacturing 🏭 activity shrunk 📉 for the sixth consecutive month in September. Its purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was 49.8, below the growth threshold of 50 🎯, revealing a struggle with weak domestic demand 🛒 and U.S. tariffs 🫨🏌️‍♂️. The PMI, despite remaining in contraction, has been the strongest 💪 since March.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that China has opened its stock option market to foreign investors, in an attempt to encourage international use of the yuan 🤑 and amplify foreign participation in the market 🌏. This comes after rising share prices 📊, driven by investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence 🧠🤓 and technologies 📱.
China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) banned BHP shipments 🚫🚚after price negotiations stalled between BHP and China ✋⛏️. With BHP being a major contributor of Australia’s iron ore exports 💥 and accounting for about 40% of China’s imported ore 🛍️, these moves could impact Australia’s federal budget 🦘.
A former Chinese Minister, Tang Renjian, was sentenced to death 🪦with a two-year reprieve for taking bribes 💸😈 worth over 268 million yuan 💰 between 2007 and 2024. He was expelled 🧹🚫by the Chinese Communist Party in 2024 after an investigation by anti-corruption authorities 😵.

Africa

Nigeria is pushing regional trade and private-sector expansion, led by Dangote’s downstream moves, but faces headwinds from forex shortages and subsidy pressures. Ghana’s debt deal offers little short-term relief as inflation and austerity deepen strain. Across the continent, voter backlash is reshaping politics, raising pressure on new leaders to deliver.

Ghana’s economy remains strained after defaulting on $20B+ in external debt, with inflation still above 30% 📈. While bondholders agreed to a restructuring deal, public frustration is rising over austerity and currency weakness.
Nigeria is doubling down on trade integration with its support for the Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF), with Nigerian firms recently striking $6B+ in deals 📦, generating investment opportunities and aiding in realising the AfCFTA.
Voters are turning against incumbents linked to economic mismanagement and corruption, with ruling parties losing in Senegal, Botswana, and South Africa. Youth turnout and digital campaigns signal rising civic awareness 📱🗳️, but analysts warn real change hinges on delivery after the vote 🎯.
Dangote Industries moves aggressively into Nigeria’s downstream oil space, acquiring MRS Oil’s retail network - backed by the $20B Lekki refinery. This could drive lower pump prices and reduce dependence on imported fuel🔧💵.

See you all next week!

We hope you enjoyed reading our newsletter! There are plenty of facts for you to drop in your next conversation to sound more intelligent. Make sure to share this artistic marvel with a friend!

Good luck for your studies, we know you smart cookies will smash it.

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We look forward to seeing you at our next event!

Best regards,

The EMN Team 💚