Emerging Markets Newsletter

2025 Edition #21

Emerging Markets Network
September 22, 2025

Semester 2 Week 9

Hey Legend!

Happy Monday and welcome to Week 9! 🥳

Week 9 is here and mid-sem break is officially next week 🏖️. One final push through lectures, assignments, and (hopefully) fewer panicked all-nighters.

So keep going 💪, treat yourself to something small tonight, maybe stop by a gallery, or just enjoy a night off. You’re nearly there.

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The Numbers

Global markets mostly advanced over the week, with gains across US equities, emerging markets, and gold. Australian shares slipped, while crude oil and Bitcoin were relatively stable. Overall, gold and emerging markets remain the strongest performers, while oil continues to lag behind despite recent stability.

The Roundup

India this week saw strong IPO momentum and record state borrowing pressures alongside rising security concerns over Saudi–Pakistan ties. In China, weak economic data added to challenges as it clashed with Australia over Pacific security, tightened restrictions on NVIDIA chips, and edged closer to a deal with the US on TikTok. Across Africa, growth was buoyed by solar expansion, stock market highs, and new financial innovations, but vulnerabilities from oil swings, trade deficits, and security tensions continue to weigh on progress.

India

From soaring IPOs and record state borrowings to high-stakes geopolitics and courtroom battles, India stands at the crossroads of opportunity and challenge. This week’s developments capture the pulse of a nation balancing growth ambitions with the realities of security, stability, and global influence.

India’s central bank is urging state governments to diversify their borrowing across different bond tenures instead of relying heavily on long‐term bonds to avoid steep rises in yields 📉📊. States are on track to borrow a record ₹12 trillion in FY2026, and yields on their bonds have already climbed 30-60 basis points this year, unsettling markets 😬📈. RBI wants states to stick more closely to their borrowing calendars and reissue existing securities to boost liquidity🔍🛠️.
GK Energy’s IPO, worth ₹464 crore, was fully subscribed on the first day with strong retail participation, boosted by a grey market premium of around 26% 🚀📈. The company also raised ₹139 crore from anchor investors like Pinebridge and 3P India Equity Fund at the upper price band of ₹153 per share 💰🏦. Analysts highlight attractive valuation and clean energy growth prospects, but caution about rising costs and execution risks 🌱⚠️.
India has voiced concern over Saudi Arabia’s new mutual defence pact with Pakistan, urging Riyadh to consider mutual interests and sensitivities given New Delhi’s close ties with the Kingdom 🤝. The move is being studied for its impact on India’s national security and regional stability, especially as Saudi remains one of India’s largest trading partners 📊🛢️. Opposition parties have flagged the pact as a security challenge, calling it a test of India’s diplomacy in the Gulf 🌍⚠️.
Families of victims from the June 12 Air India 787 crash have sued Boeing and Honeywell, alleging faulty fuel switches caused both engines to fail after takeoff ⚖️✈️. Investigators found the switches moved to “CUTOFF,” echoing a 2018 FAA advisory on design risks 🔍📋. The FAA, however, maintains the switches are safe, with Air India reporting no defects in fleet inspections 🛫✅.

China

This week, we take a look at renewed hopes for a potential US TikTok deal with Beijing, newly implemented buyer restrictions on NVIDIA AI chips and persistent economic worries. Down south, China criticises Australia’s new potential ‘Groundbreaking’ security agreement with Papua New Guinea — adding to China’s regional woes.

Worrying signs for the Chinese economy! New data 📊 from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed August retail sale 🛍️ and factory output 🏭 growth was 2025’s weakest month. Making matters worse, weak economic confidence has led to sluggish 🐌 growth in fixed-asset investments and a continued fall in home prices 🏠↘️, with the capital seeing a 19% YoY drop in new-home sales.
China fires back against a potential ‘Pukpuk’ treaty between Australia and PNG, protesting on social media that the agreement violated PNGs sovereignty. The treaty stands to radically change regional dynamics 🗺️🔄, making Australia and PNG formal military allies with defence obligations 🤝🪖, a mortal blow to China’s regional defence strategy 💔💥. However, due to an insufficient quorum in PNG’s cabinet blocking the treaty’s ratification, both countries signed a communique ✍️ as a sign of commitment.
Beijing and Washington are on the verge of signing a deal which would give US control over TikTok, with President Trump’s claiming that Xi Jinping had green lit the deal 🤝✅. While the deals details remain largely unknown, it is expected the deal would see 6 out of 7 of TikTok’s hot contested board positions 💼 under American control.
China has banned its largest tech-firms from purchasing NVIDIA AI chips according to the latest reports as the AI war heats up 🔥🤖. NVIDIA’s CEO, Jensen Huang, responded saying he was “disappointed” 😔 with Beijing’s decision, adding that “the advance of human society is not a zero-sum game” ⚖️. However, the ban comes following China’s state market regulators conclusion that NVIDIA had breached antimonopoly laws in a preliminary investigation 🔍.

Africa

East Africa keeps powering forward, especially Kenya and Ethiopia with strong growth and innovation. Across the continent, solar power is surging thanks to cheaper Chinese imports, bringing energy to more homes off-grid and fueling wider renewable adoption, even in conflict zones like Mali and Sudan. But challenges remain financing gaps for climate adaptation and security threats continue to test resilience.

South Africa’s economy grew 0.8% in Q2 2025 📊 thanks to a manufacturing rebound, but consumer sentiment stays weak. Angola is struggling with oil price swings 🛢️, forcing a rethink of growth plans. Meanwhile, Africa’s imports from China surged 25% 🚢, raising concerns about widening trade deficits and the urgent need for local value addition 🏭.
The Johannesburg Stock Exchange hit a record 105,423 points on Sept 18 🚀, lifted by mining, gold, and major restructuring news. Big deals included Anglo American’s $20B takeover of Teck Resources 💰 and strong showings from Glencore, Kumba Iron Ore, and SPAR. Elsewhere, Morocco approved its first tokenized bond issues 📑 and AI-powered compliance tools are spreading across Africa’s financial hubs 🤖.
A two-day AU field mission landed in South Sudan, aiming to cool tensions and prevent conflict flare-ups ahead of key political transitions 🕊️. With more than half of planet’s climate financing needed still unmet, African institutions are stepping up: pushing for fairer finance, regional ratings systems, and blended investment models that drive climate-smart development 🌍💪.
South Africa’s Trade Minister Parks Tau met US Trade Rep Jamieson Greer to ease tensions after Washington’s 30% tariff on SA exports. The talks produced a framework for ongoing dialogue, offering cautious optimism ✨ but no breakthrough yet. With unemployment near 30% and US demands on affirmative action policies, the stakes remain high for jobs and diplomacy ⚖️.

See you all next week!

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Good luck for your studies, we know you smart cookies will smash it.

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Best regards,

The EMN Team 💚