Emerging Markets Newsletter

Semester 1 Week 5

Hey Legend!

Happy Monday and welcome to Week 5! 🥳

As you read this, a quarter of 2025 has already passed. Have you made it count? Have you pushed yourself, taken risks, and grown—or just let time slip by? 🕒

The good news? It’s never too late. Chase that goal 🥅, pick up that hobby 💃, and become the person you set out to be 🫡. The year is still yours to shape⚡

On a lighter note, we’re thrilled to partner with Prepped Talent 🤝, Australia’s leading Mergers & Acquisitions 🏦 career accelerator for university students 🧑‍💼👩‍💼.

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The Numbers

In the final week of March, markets were mixed as the S&P 500 and emerging markets dipped, while the ASX managed a modest gain. Gold extended its strong rally, crude oil saw continued support, and Bitcoin edged slightly lower continuing its downward trend as one of the worst performers this year.

The Roundup

Free speech under fire in India, Beijing under pressure, and Africa sees major M&A moves—here’s your weekly roundup from Emerging Markets.

India

Comedian Kunal Kamra faces police scrutiny as free speech concerns rise. Meanwhile, India’s fiscal deficit nears its target, markets anticipate rate cuts, and India offers tariff concessions to the U.S.

• Indian comedian Kunal Kamra faces police scrutiny for a performance seen to have criticised a key political ally of PM Narendra Modi, fanning concerns about the limits of free speech in the world’s largest democracy🤬🤫. Mumbai’s Habitat Studio has decided to shut down indefinitely after a mob, allegedly of Shiv Sena workers, vandalised property to protest against the comedian ⚔️ .

• India's fiscal deficit for April-February was 13.47 trillion rupees ($157.62 billion), or 85.8% of the estimate for the financial year ending March 31 📊 . Net tax receipts for the first 11 months of the financial year were at 20.16 trillion rupees, or 78.8% of the annual target, compared with 18.49 trillion rupees for the same period a year earlier 📆 💵 .

• With inflation close to the Reserve Bank of India's target and growth weak, the country's overnight indexed swap (OIS) markets have started pricing in far more aggressive rate cuts than previously anticipated⏫🔄️. OIS rates, the closest gauge of interest rate expectations, have eased by 10-15 basis points so far in March↘️📅 .

• India has offered tariff cuts on imports of U.S. farm products like almonds and cranberries as a further concession to the United States, hoping to avert President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs set for next week 🔂🥜. India is actively seeking to appease the Trump administration and is open to cutting tariffs on over half of U.S. imports worth $23 billion 😇👀 .

China

This week, we explore how President Xi aims to reverse net capital outflows, falling industrial profits, WTO disputes between China and Canada over tarrifs, and the possibility of American Chinese cooperation over the sale of Tik Tok.

• Canada files WTO trade action against China, accusing China of placing unfair tariffs on its agricultural 🌽and aquatic 🐟 exports. This comes after Beijing alleged Ottawa had “harmed the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprise” following the Trudeau administrations decision to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs last year🚗⚡️.

• President Xi warns against protectionism and isolationism, urging global business leaders🌏👩‍💼👨‍💼 to “push back against retrogressive rules” in an effort to attract Investment 💸. Xi committed to enhancing market transparency 🪞and ensuring political stability ⚖️, touting “to invest in China is to invest in tomorrow”, as China grapples with record capital outflows 📉.

• Worrying signs for Chinese Industry! Industrial profits have fallen year-on-year 🚨for January and February by 0.3% 📉, with U.S. tariffs and persistent deflation largely to blame for eating away at industrial profit margins. The latest figures raise serious doubts 🤔 on Beijings 5% economic growth target 🎯and pressures policymakers to deliver soon rather than later ⏳.

• Tik Tok takeover deal back on the table as President Trump offers tariff concessions 🤲 in return for Beijings approval ✅. Despite any finalised deal being far away, Trump hopes to secure 🔏 the outline of a sale by next week as American firms eye 👀 ByteDances American based operations.

Africa

Africa continues to experience dynamic shifts across all areas, finance💰, politics🏛️, and economic development📈. This includes bank sector expansions🏦, debt restructuring, new investments and changes in regional stability.

• Nigeria’s Access Bank Group confirmed its acquisition of Zambia’s Cavmont Bank 🏦 in a deal valued at $250 million. This deal is expected to expand banking services 📊 and credit access 💵 to underserved communities 👥.

• Ghana has announced new fiscal measures to reduce public debt📉, including a restructuring of domestic bonds worth $3 billion 🏦. The government is also exploring spending cuts ✂️ and tax reforms 📜 to stabilise the economy ⚖️ while maintaining essential public services🚑📚  .

• Naspers Group has announced plans to divest its majority stake in Takealot.com 🛒, one of South Africa’s largest e-commerce platforms 📦. This decision is part of Naspers' strategy🔄 to refocus on high-growth international markets 🌍 and streamline its investment portfolio 💼.

• Clashes have intensified between the SAF and the RSF in Sudan, with SAF launching a major offensive to reclaim key areas in Khartoum 🔥. Heavy fighting 💣 has led to civilian casualties 🏥 and displacement 🚶‍♂️, worsening an already dire humanitarian crisis 🆘🚨.

See you all next week!

We hope you enjoyed reading our newsletter! There are plenty of facts for you to drop in your next conversation to sound more intelligent. Make sure to share this artistic marvel with a friend!

Good luck for your studies, we know you smart cookies will smash it.

If you have any inquiries please email [email protected]

We look forward to seeing you at our next event!

Best regards,

The EMN Team 💚